The short version
Published reports for the second quarter of 2026 describe a BC commercial market that has stopped getting worse in most sectors but is not yet in a broad recovery. Metro Vancouver industrial vacancy edged down for the first time in five quarters, office vacancy is mixed (downtown improving, suburbs softer), multi-family fundamentals have loosened after a wave of new rental supply, and Metro Vancouver investment volume fell year over year even as national volume rose.
Borrowing costs have been steady. The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25% at every 2026 decision so far, most recently on September 2, 2026, after its last cut on October 29, 2025 (Bank of Canada, policy rate history). Its next scheduled decision is October 28, 2026.
One regular BC data point is gone: the BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator was discontinued in November 2025 because, in BCREA's words, it could "no longer be confident in the CLI's predictive capacity" (BCREA). The figures below come from brokerage and research-firm reports instead, and each one names its source and period.
Key metrics at a glance
Different firms define and survey their markets differently, so the same market can show different numbers in different reports. Compare figures within one source over time rather than across sources.
| Metric | Market | Period | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Policy interest rate | Canada | Sep 2, 2026 decision | 2.25% (held) | Bank of Canada |
| Industrial vacancy | Metro Vancouver | Q2 2026 | 4.1% | Avison Young |
| Industrial availability | Vancouver | Q2 2026 | 5.9% (down 30 bps year over year) | Altus Group |
| Industrial average asking net rent | Metro Vancouver | Q2 2026 | $19.14/sq ft (down 3.9% year over year) | CBRE |
| Industrial vacancy | Greater Victoria | Q2 2026 | 5.4% | CBRE, as reported by Black Press |
| Office vacancy, downtown / suburban / overall | Metro Vancouver | Q2 2026 | 12.2% / 11.0% / 11.6% | CBRE |
| Office vacancy, downtown / suburban | Greater Victoria | Q2 2026 | 15.3% / 7.2% | CBRE, as reported by Black Press |
| Office vacancy | Kelowna | End of 2025 | 8.6% | William Wright Report Q2 2026 |
| Purpose-built rental vacancy | Vancouver / Victoria / Kelowna CMAs | October 2025 survey | 3.7% / 3.3% / 6.9% | CMHC 2025 Rental Market Report |
| Investment volume, all property types | Vancouver | H1 2026 | $3.5 billion (down 23% year over year) | Altus Group |
| All-property average cap rate | Canada | Q2 2026 | 6.58% (down 3 bps quarter over quarter) | CBRE |
Industrial
CBRE reports that Metro Vancouver industrial availability fell 20 basis points and vacancy fell 10 basis points in Q2 2026, "breaking a four-quarter trend of steady increases." Average asking net rent was $19.14 per sq ft, down 3.9% from a year earlier, and CBRE describes rents as appearing to be "on final approach to a floor." About 2.9 million sq ft was under construction, just under 60% pre-committed, with nearly half of it build-to-suit (CBRE, Vancouver Industrial Figures Q2 2026).
Avison Young put Metro Vancouver industrial vacancy at 4.1% in Q2 2026, with sublease space at 0.4% and only 90,538 sq ft delivered in the quarter (Business Examiner, summarizing Avison Young and CBRE Q2 2026). Altus Group measured Vancouver availability at 5.9% and counted 25 buildings totalling nearly 2.1 million sq ft in the development pipeline, 62% still available. Altus notes that land constraints keep new supply weighted to small and mid-bay buildings; one Fraser Valley completion it highlights is a 216,000 sq ft building at 31270 Hamilton Place in Mission (Altus Group, Canadian Industrial Market Update Q2 2026). Most brokerages fold Fraser Valley municipalities into their Metro Vancouver industrial totals rather than publishing a separate Fraser Valley series.
Nationally, Colliers reported industrial vacancy tightening for a second straight quarter to 3.3% in Q2 2026 (BNN Bloomberg, on Colliers Q2 2026).
In the Okanagan, the William Wright Report Q2 2026 (published August 2026) describes industrial as "resilient, not resurgent": Kelowna industrial vacancy held roughly flat through 2025, West Kelowna vacancy rose as larger projects completed, and "sale prices and land values continued to drift lower." It notes that industrial makes up the largest share of Vernon's commercial lease inventory, with available spaces ranging from small bays to about 38,000 sq ft (William Wright Commercial). For a deeper look at this sector, see the industrial real estate guide.
Office
CBRE put Metro Vancouver's overall office vacancy at 11.6% in Q2 2026, up 80 basis points, driven by a 190-basis-point jump in suburban vacancy to 11.0%; downtown stood at 12.2% (CBRE, Vancouver Office Figures Q2 2026). Avison Young, which surveys differently, reported downtown Vancouver vacancy at 14.0%, down 40 basis points from the prior quarter, with combined class AAA and A downtown vacancy falling to 11.6% from 12.9%.
In Greater Victoria, CBRE's Q2 2026 figures put downtown office vacancy at 15.3%, up from about 9% at the start of 2024, partly because the Telus Ocean building added 154,000 sq ft of new class AA space; suburban Victoria was 7.2% (Victoria News, on CBRE Q2 2026).
Kelowna's office market is small but comparatively tight. The William Wright Report Q2 2026 cites 8.6% vacancy at the end of 2025 and about 38,000 sq ft of positive absorption that year, against a national figure of 13.4%. Colliers reported national office vacancy falling for a fourth straight quarter to 13.4% in Q2 2026, with new office construction at a 15-year low.
Retail and multi-family
Retail. Retail was the steadiest investment category in Vancouver: Altus Group recorded $866 million of retail transactions in H1 2026, up 1% year over year and second nationally after the GTA (Altus Group, Vancouver market update Q2 2026). CBRE's 2026 outlook flagged that significant new Vancouver retail supply delivering in 2026 and 2027 will "test market absorption" (CBRE, 2026 Canada Real Estate Market Outlook). The William Wright Report Q2 2026 calls retail "the valley's most dependable performer" in the Okanagan, citing the sale of 16,000 sq ft of fully leased ground-floor retail in Kelowna and steady demand in Vernon and Penticton.
Multi-family. Rental vacancy rose sharply across BC in CMHC's October 2025 survey. The Province reported Greater Vancouver purpose-built vacancy at 3.7%, the highest in more than 30 years, and Greater Victoria at 3.3%, the highest since 1999 (BC Gov News, December 11, 2025). Metro Kelowna reached 6.9%, up from 3.8% in 2024, with an average rent of $1,904 across unit types (Castanet, on CMHC 2025 Rental Market Report). Vancouver multi-family transaction volume fell 41% year over year to about $372 million in H1 2026, which Altus attributes to temporary supply imbalances from newly completed rental units. For building-level considerations, see buying an apartment building in BC.
Investment volume and cap rates
Altus Group reports Vancouver investment volume of $3.5 billion in H1 2026, down 23% year over year, while national volume rose 19% to $24.1 billion. By Vancouver asset class: office about $394 million (down 46%), industrial nearly $669 million (down 19%), retail $866 million (up 1%), multi-family nearly $372 million (down 41%) and land $1.2 billion (down 14%), of which industrial, commercial and institutional land was nearly $788 million (Altus Group, Canadian market update Q2 2026).
CBRE's Q2 2026 cap rate survey shows the national all-property average compressing 3 basis points to 6.58%, with the spread to the 10-year Government of Canada bond yield at 320 basis points. For Vancouver, CBRE says bifurcated investor interest has "muted overall transaction volumes and left cap rates largely unchanged"; its Vancouver ranges were flat quarter over quarter, for example class A industrial at 4.50%–5.25% and class A low-rise multi-family at 3.50%–4.75% (CBRE, Canadian Cap Rates & Investment Insights Q2 2026). How those ranges translate into a price for a specific property is covered in how commercial property is valued in BC.
What the reports say about the months ahead
These are the publishers' views, not forecasts from this site.
- Interest rates. In its September 2, 2026 statement the Bank of Canada noted Q2 GDP growth of 3.3% (annualized), CPI inflation around 3% largely because of gasoline, core measures close to 2%, and "upside risks to the Bank's inflation forecast" from Middle East conflict and new US tariffs (Bank of Canada).
- Vancouver office and industrial. CBRE's 2026 outlook expected the office market to "stabilize and improve in 2026" as construction pauses, and said industrial was "poised for a rebound in 2026 as the oversupply cycle concludes." Its Q2 figures show vacancy declines beginning in industrial and in downtown office, while suburban office softened.
- Okanagan. William Wright titles its Q2 2026 report "A Head Start, Not a Rebound," and says local industrial data "does not yet match the national mood."
- Policy. On September 18, 2026 the Province paused the planned October 1, 2026 expansion of PST to services including non-residential real estate services until it is "no longer facing uncertainty from the Canada-U.S. trade war" (My South Okanagan Now).
Vacancy measures space that is empty; availability also counts space that is still occupied but marketed for lease or sublease. Report averages cover large regions and whole classes of buildings, so a specific property can perform well above or below them. Before relying on a figure for a purchase, sale or lease, check the report's definitions, survey area and date.
How Commercial Real Estate Group can help
Sean Phillips, REALTOR® with Coldwell Banker Executives Realty, works on commercial sales, purchases and leases across British Columbia from a Vernon base. If you want these market figures applied to a particular property, book a free 10-minute Zoom intro. Owners weighing a sale can start with selling commercial property; paid advisory is quoted per property.